Four Factors — Team
Net Rating
+22.3
98th percentile
Off. Rating
128.5
100th percentile
Def. Rating
106.2
80th percentile
Pace
63.9
12th percentile (slow)
Offensive Profile
Effective FG%54.7%87
Off. Rebound %39.2%99
Turnover %11.0%99
3-Pt Attempt Rate49.7%96
3-Point %34.5%61
FT Attempt Rate33.2%36
2nd Chance Pts/G15.799
True Shooting %59.0%90
Assist %50.0%34
Defensive Profile
Opp. eFG%47.3%93
Opp. Off. Reb %26.7%93
Opp. Turnover %10.2%0
Block %13.0%93
Steal %5.7%0
Opp. FTA Rate19.7%100
Opp. 3-Pt Rate43.4%15
Def. Rebound %73.3%93
Blocks/PF0.34x99
Scoring Breakdown
83.2
Points/Game
93rd pct
15.7
2nd Chance Pts/G
99th pct
9.9
Pts off TOVs/G
97th pct
20.1
Bench Pts/G
52nd pct
Identity & Tendencies
3-Heavy Offense
Illinois attempts 30.6 threes per game (97th percentile) but converts at only 34.5% — above average volume, middling efficiency. Wagler leads with 5.9 attempts/g at 39.7%. Opponents must respect the arc but can key on execution.
Elite Second-Chance Machine
39.2% offensive rebound rate (99th pct) generates 15.7 second-chance points per game. Both Ivisic brothers and Stojakovic are elite at tip-outs and putbacks. Must crash the glass hard every possession.
Ball Security
11.0% turnover rate (99th pct) — one of the best nationally. Boswell (2.73x AST:TOV), Wagler (2.38x) and Davis (4.17x) are all clean. Forces pressure-defense to be disciplined rather than gambling for steals.
Slow Pace, Deliberate Sets
63.9 pace (12th pct nationally). Illinois does not want to run. They prefer to execute in the half-court. Pressing or up-tempo play to force them into faster decisions may disrupt rhythm.
Defend with Blocking, Not Steals
Block pct is 93rd; steal pct is literally 0th. They protect the rim (Zvonimir Ivisic: 12.9% block rate, 99th pct) but don't gamble for steals. Opponents can exploit gaps in passing lanes.
Foul-Draw Disparity
Illinois draws 18.8 fouls/game (83rd pct) while committing only 13.4 (99th pct). Opponents average just 12.4 FTA/g (100th pct defensive), meaning they almost never put opponents on the line. Physical play must be disciplined.
Rotation Players (8-Man Core)
23
Keaton Wagler
Lead Guard
17.9
PPG
5.1
REB
4.2
AST
54.1
eFG%
3PT%
39.7%
87/219 att
At Rim FG%
61.9%
73/118 att
AST:TOV
2.38x
90th pct
+/-
+478
100th pct
True freshman who plays like a veteran. Elite floor spacer with shot-creation ability and can get to the rim. Does not turn it over. Biggest on-ball matchup problem on the roster — 42.1% of shots are above-break 3s. Watch for drive-and-kick to corner shooters.
0
David Mirkovic
Playmaking Big
13.3
PPG
8.0
REB
2.6
AST
56.2
eFG%
At Rim FG%
69.3%
88/127 att
3PT%
37.5%
57/152 att
OReb %
10.0%
71st pct
AST%
16.2%
93rd pct
Versatile freshman forward with genuine perimeter range and rim-attacking ability. Dangerous as both screener-and-popper and in PnR. Capable passer out of the short roll. His combination of size and shot-making forces bigs to step out defensively.
13
Tomislav Ivisic
Stretch Big
10.4
PPG
5.6
REB
1.6
AST
57.6
eFG%
At Rim FG%
83.1%
96th pct
3PT%
31.3%
50/160 att
Above-Break 3 att
3.9/g
96th pct
2PT%
73.0%
98th pct
True stretch big — 7'1" with 49.1% of his shots from above the arc. Incredible finisher inside (83.1% at rim) but 3PT% of 31.3% is below average. Challenge him to hit 3s — his value is predicated on the threat; don't concede paint.
44
Zvonimir Ivisic
Rim Anchor
6.4
PPG
4.5
REB
0.3
AST
59.1
eFG%
At Rim FG%
90.2%
98th pct
Block %
12.9%
99th pct
2PT%
83.1%
99th pct
3PT%
28.0%
below avg
7'2" rim monster — 90.2% at the rim is extraordinary. Elite shot blocker (12.9% rate, 99th pct). Can be played off the 3-pt line (28%). Primary challenge: don't drive into his shot-blocking radius. He deters interior scoring entirely.
Shooting by Zone — Key Players
Wagler (#23) — Zone Breakdown
| Zone | FGA/G | FGA% | FG% | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At The Rim | 3.2 | 26.0% | 61.9% | +avg |
| Paint 2s | 2.3 | 18.7% | 43.5% | avg |
| Mid Range | 0.9 | 7.0% | 15.6% | below |
| Above-Brk 3 | 5.2 | 42.1% | 39.3% | +avg |
| Corner 3 | 0.7 | 5.7% | 42.3% | +avg |
Avoid giving him catch-and-shoot reps at the rim or above the arc. Force him into mid-range — his Achilles heel (15.6%).
T. Ivisic (#13) — Zone Breakdown
| Zone | FGA/G | FGA% | FG% | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At The Rim | 2.3 | 28.4% | 83.1% | elite |
| Paint 2s | 0.7 | 8.5% | 47.8% | avg |
| Mid Range | 0.3 | 4.1% | 54.5% | good |
| Above-Brk 3 | 3.9 | 49.1% | 28.6% | below |
| Corner 3 | 0.8 | 10.0% | 44.4% | good |
Do NOT guard him in the paint — concede the below-average 3. His above-break 3 is 28.6%. Let him shoot off the dribble from outside; protect the rim.
Z. Ivisic (#44) — Zone Breakdown
| Zone | FGA/G | FGA% | FG% | vs Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At The Rim | 1.6 | 35.7% | 90.2% | elite |
| Paint 2s | 0.2 | 4.7% | 37.5% | avg |
| Above-Brk 3 | 1.8 | 38.0% | 27.7% | below |
| Corner 3 | 0.9 | 20.5% | 28.6% | below |
Play off him beyond 17 feet. Concern is exclusively within 4 feet — 90.2% is impossible to stop. Keep him off glass to limit tip-ins.
Synergy Shot Quality — Full Roster
| Player | Pts | PPS | FG Att | FG% | eFG% | SSQ | SSM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Wagler #23 | 662 | 1.07 | 453 | 44.4% | 54.0% | 0.90 | +0.18 |
| David Mirkovic #0 | 490 | 1.02 | 361 | 48.5% | 56.2% | 0.98 | +0.14 |
| Andrej Stojakovic #2 | 459 | 1.05 | 338 | 49.7% | 52.7% | 0.98 | +0.07 |
| Tomislav Ivisic #13 | 351 | 1.16 | 268 | 48.9% | 58.2% | 1.04 | +0.12 |
| Kylan Boswell #4 | 370 | 1.01 | 277 | 44.0% | 50.4% | 0.95 | +0.06 |
| Zvonimir Ivisic #44 | 238 | 1.11 | 171 | 50.9% | 59.1% | 1.18 | 0.00 |
| Ben Humrichous #3 | 216 | 1.05 | 186 | 37.6% | 53.0% | 1.02 | +0.04 |
| Jake Davis #15 | 198 | 1.22 | 147 | 42.9% | 61.2% | 1.02 | +0.20 |
| Team Total | 2,484 | 1.09 | 2,276 | 46.0% | 54.6% | 0.99 | +0.10 |
Top 5 Lineups by Minutes — Wagler-Anchored
| # | Lineup | MP | Net Rtg | ORtg | DRtg | eFG% | OReb% | FTA Rate | TOV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boswell · Wagler · Stojakovic · Mirkovic · T.Ivisic | 149 | +15.3 | 128.4 | 113.1 | 54.4% | 39.7% | 27.6% | 11.3% |
| 2 | Boswell · Wagler · Davis · Mirkovic · T.Ivisic | 147 | +15.4 | 119.6 | 104.2 | 49.8% | 44.4% | 10.3% | 11.5% |
| 3 | Wagler · Stojakovic · Humrichous · Mirkovic · Z.Ivisic | 99 | +20.1 | 131.0 | 111.0 | 59.9% | 35.2% | 38.2% | 11.6% |
| 4 | Wagler · Stojakovic · Davis · Mirkovic · T.Ivisic | 93 | +23.4 | 128.8 | 105.4 | 54.0% | 40.7% | 21.3% | 10.4% |
| 5 | Boswell · Wagler · Stojakovic · Humrichous · T.Ivisic | 68 | +29.2 | 133.3 | 104.1 | 57.5% | 35.7% | 30.2% | 9.1% |
Lineup Insights
Lineup #5 (Boswell/Wagler/Stojakovic/Humrichous/T.Ivisic) is their deadliest at +29.2 — highest-upside closing group, small-ball orientation with shooting around T.Ivisic.
Lineup #4 (+23.4) is the best defensive unit — Davis replaces Boswell; less assist creation but superior spacing and defensive discipline.
Lineup #3 with Z.Ivisic is a glass-eating, shot-blocking unit — highest OReb% (35.2%) and lowest opponent FTA (38.2% rate). Use against teams that need rim protection.
Their two primary lineups (#1 and #2) have nearly identical TOV% (~11.4%) — ball security is not rotation-dependent. It's cultural.
Primary threats to stop
STOP
Wagler off the dribble: 42.1% of his shots are above-break 3s — don't give him space above the arc. Force him left (weaker hand), contest every catch-and-shoot, and deny easy PnR catches. He's the engine; disrupting him disrupts everything.
STOP
Offensive glass: 39.2% ORB% means second-chance points will come unless you commit to boxing out all five. Both Ivisics and Mirkovic are elite tip-out players. Every miss is a possession battle — treat it that way.
KEY
Z. Ivisic rim protection: Do not drive baseline into his shot-blocking radius. At 7'2" with 12.9% block rate, he alters every interior attempt. Finish strong, use pump fakes, or kick out before contact.
KEY
Pace control: Illinois wants 64 possessions. Every extended possession they run is a win. Push tempo in transition — get up-and-down before they set their defense. Each extra possession you create is a net positive against this team.
Exploitable weaknesses
EXPLOIT
Zero steal rate: 0th percentile steal% means passing lanes are open. Extra passes, skip passes, and ball reversal will rarely be contested. Their defense relies entirely on blocking attempts and switching — not active hands.
EXPLOIT
Mid-range vs Wagler: His mid-range is 15.6% — essentially unusable. If he catches a closeout, shade him into the mid-range area. Accepting a contested 15.6% shot is a win on every possession.
EXPLOIT
Stojakovic's 3PT%: At 24.4% from three (15th pct), he's a significant spacing liability. You can sag off him on the perimeter, clog the lane, and funnel traffic away from the Ivisics.
ADJUST
FTA drought: Illinois virtually never puts opponents on the line (0th pct FTA rate allowed). Play physical — attack the paint repeatedly. Drawing fouls forces their disciplined defense into foul trouble and gets you to the line in a game where they won't willingly give it.